In connection with the Norwegian Energy Meld. St. 25 (2015 - 2016) - Power to change - Energy policy by 2030, NVE has made estimates of future consumption of electricity in mainland Norway.
The tendency to replace fossil energy products with electricity is expected to continue. In homes and commercial buildings, heating oil and paraffin must be phased out and much of this can be replaced by electricity and heat pumps. It is further assumed that electric battery motors will replace the combustion engine in many vehicles, machines and tools. Both of these developments will lead to higher consumption of electricity, but lower overall energy consumption because heat pumps are a much more efficient way of heating buildings than oil boilers and because electric vehicles are three to four times as energy efficient as fossil-driven vehicles.
The most important driver for energy use is population development. In Statistics Norway, its average alternative for population progression, the population will grow to about 5.9 million inhabitants in 2030 and further to 6.6 million inhabitants by 2050.
In the energy issue, NVE made an estimate of the use of electricity in Norway in 2030. NVE expects an increase in electricity consumption in most sectors. Based on Statistics Norway's population projection, there is a need for more housing in Norway and higher consumption and more workers need more professional buildings. Better buildings and better heating solutions (including heat pumps) will, however, slow down the growth of electricity in buildings. Total electricity consumption in households, service industries (commercial buildings), agricultural buildings and leasure homes is expected to grow by approx. five per cent from 2012 to 2030. Much of this growth is expected to come in the first part of the period, by 2020. By the end of the period, electricity in buildings may decline due to an ever-increasing share of energy-efficient buildings. Electricity in buildings varies with outdoor temperature.
An increase in electricity consumption in the aluminum industry is expected due to the new Karmøy pilot plant and opportunities for a full-scale aluminum production plant at a later time. In addition, growth is expected in the production of chemical raw materials. If the full-scale Karmøy plant is not realized, there may be little growth in the industry's electricity consumption by 2030. In the petroleum industry, extensions of land facilities and electrification of new fields will provide higher electricity consumption. The peak of the petroleum industry's electricity consumption is expected to be reached in the middle of the 2020s, with an electricity consumption of around 10 TWh, to subsequently sink to just under 9 TWh of annual electricity consumption in 2030.
The transport sector is the sector where electricity is expected to be the greatest growth by 2030. Today, rail, tram and subway are transport vehicles with the highest electricity consumption in Norway. However, there has been a strong increase in the number of electric cars in recent years, and battery-electric operations are being tested in more and more types of vehicles, machinery and tools. The NVE assumes that the growth in electric cars will continue and that other means of transport such as buses, lorries and ferries will follow. In the Energy Emission, NVE estimated that a total electricity consumption of 3 TWh in 2030, but emphasizes that actual consumption can both be significantly lower and significantly higher than this.
Total gross electricity consumption is projected to increase from 130 TWh in 2012 to just over 143 TWh by 2030, corresponding to a 10 per cent growth. However, new consumer groups, such as data centers and hydrogen production, can provide even higher consumption, while fossil relapse within transport and no further development of the aluminum plant at Karmøy can yield less electricity than estimated by NVE. Higher consumption will also lead to larger losses in the transmission grid.