NVE har gjennomført flere FoU-prosjekter om konsekvensene av klimaendringer på vannressursene globalt, regionalt og i Norge.

Prosjektenes formål:

  • Beskrive langtidsvariabiliteten i hydrologi og kryosfæren i Norge, basert på lange måleserier.
  • Utarbeide fremskrivninger for Norges hydrologi, basert på klimafremskrivninger.
  • Vurdere fremtidige endringer i flom og tørke.


En samlet oversikt over den historiske endringen i klima og hydrologi, utviklingen i nær fortid og fremtid og forventede klima- og hydrologiske endringer i fremtiden finner du i rapporten Klima i Norge 2100:

Hanssen-Bauer, I., Førland, E.J., Haddeland, I., Hisdal, H., Mayer S., Nesje, A., Nilsen, J.E.Ø., Sandven, S., Sandø, A.B., Sorteberg, A. & Ådlandsvik B. (Red.) (2015) Klima i Norge 2100. Kunnskapsgrunnlag for klimatilpasning oppdatert i 2015. NCCS report no. 2/2015.

Oversikt over publikasjoner i siste 5 år:

2018

Artikler i internasjonale tidsskrift med fagfellevurdering/Peer-reviewed international journal papers

Gao, HK., Li, H., Duan, Z., Ren, Z., Meng, X. & Pan, X. (2018) Modelling glacier variation and its impact on water resource in the Urumqi Glacier No. 1 in Central Asia. Science of The Total Environment, 644, 1160–1170, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.004 

Huang, S. & Hattermann, F.F. (2018) Coupling a global hydrodynamic algorithm and a regional hydrological model for large-scale flood inundation simulations. Hydrology Research, 49 (2), 438–449,  https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2017.061

Huang, S., Kumar, R., Rakovec, O., Aich, V., Wang, X., Samaniego, L., Liersch, S. & Krysanova, V. (2018) Multimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four large river basins at global warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (12), https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aae94b  

Huang, S., Wortmann, M., Duethmann, D., Menz, C., Shi, F., Zhao, C., Su, B. & Krysanova, V. (2018) Adaptation strategies of agriculture and water management to climate Change in the Upper Tarim River basin, NW China. Agricultural Water Management., 203, 207–224, http://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2018.03.004

Osuch, M., Romanowicz, R.J. & Wong W.K. (2018) Analysis of low flow indices under varying climatic conditions in Poland. Hydrology Research, 49 (2), 373–389; https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2017.021

Piniewski, M., Szcześniak, M., Huang, S. & Kundzewicz, Z.W. (2018) Projections of runoff in the Vistula and the Odra river basins with the help of the SWAT model. Hydrology research, 49 (2),
303–317, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2017.280

Rizzi, J., Nilsen, I.B., Stagge, J.H., Gisnås, K. & Tallaksen, L.M. (2018) Five decades of warming: impacts on snow cover in Norway. Hydrology Research, 49 (3), 670–688, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2017.051

Stokes, C.R., Andreassen, L.M., Champion, M.R. & Corner, G.D. (2018) Widespread and accelerating glacier retreat on the Lyngen Peninsula, northern Norway, since their ‘Little Ice Age’ maximum. Journal of Glaciology, 64 (243), 100–118, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2018.3

Vincent, C., Soruco, A., Azam, M.F., Basantes‐Serrano, R., Jackson, M., Kjøllmoen, B., Thibert, E., Wagnon, P., Six, D., Rabatel, A., Ramanathan, A., Berthier, E., Cusicanqui, D., Vincent, P. &  Mandal, A. (2018) A nonlinear statistical model for extracting a climatic signal from glacier mass balance measurements. JGR Earth Surface, 123 (9), 2228–2242, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JF004702

Vormoor, K., Heistermann, M., Bronstert, A. & Lawrence, D. (2018) Hydrological model parameter (in)stability under contrasting flood seasonality conditions. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 63 (7),
991–1007, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2018.1466056

Rapport/Report 

Sorteberg, A., Lawrence, D., Dyrrdal, A.V., Mayer, S. & Engeland, K. (Eds.) (2018) Climatic changes in short duration extreme precipitation and rapid onset flooding – implications for design values. NCCS report no. 1/2018, Norwegian Centre for Climate Services, 144 p.

Populærvitskapelege artiklar/Popular science articles

Støren, E., Engeland, K. & Paasche, Ø. (2018) Nye metoder gir økt kunnskap om flom. Naturen 6, 267–274

Tallaksen, L. & Hisdal, H. (2018) Tørke – en klimafare med alvorlige konsekvenser, også i Norge. Naturen 6, 238–245

2017

Artikler i internasjonale tidsskrift med fagfellevurdering/Peer-reviewed international journal papers

Blöschl, G., Hall, J., Parajka, J. et al. (incl. Wilson, D.) (2017) Changing climate shifts timing of European floods. Science 357 (6351), 588–590, DOI: 10.1126/science.aan2506

Erlandsen, H.B., Haddeland, I., Tallaksen, L.M. & Kristiansen, J. (2017) The Sensitivity of the Terrestrial Surface Energy and Water Balance Estimates in the WRF Model to Lower Surface Boundary Representations: A South Norway Case Study. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 18 (1), 265–284,   DOI:10.1175/JHM-D-15-0146.1

Gosling, S.N., Zaherpour, J., Mount, N.J. et al. (incl. Haddeland, I.) (2017) A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C. Climatic Change, 141 (3), 577–595, DOI:10.1007/s10584-016-1773-3

Hodgkins, G.A., Whitfield, P.H., Burn, D.H. et al. (incl. Fleig, A., Wilson, D.) (2017) Climate-driven variability in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe. Journal of Hydrology, 552, 704–717. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.07.027

Huang, S., Kumar, R., Flörke, M. et al. (2016) Evaluation of an ensemble of regional hydrological models in 12 large-scale river basins worldwide. Climatic Change, 141 (3), 381–397, DOI:10.1007/s10584-016-1841-8

Krysanova, V., Vetter, T., Eisner, S. et al. (incl. Huang, S.) (2017) Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide—a synthesis. Environmental Research Letters, 12 (10), 105002, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/aa8359

Ødegård, R.S., Nesje, A. Isaksen, K. et al. (incl. Andreassen, L.M.) (2017) Climate change threatens archaeologically significant ice patches: insights into their age, internal structure, mass balance and climate sensitivity. The Cryosphere, 11, 17–32, DOI: 10.5194/tc-11-17-2017

Rapporter/Reports

Hanssen, G.S., Barkved, L., Görlitz, S., Hisdal, H., Hofstad, H., Interwies, E., Jagers, S., Junker, J., Lundqvist, L.J., Seifert, I. & Seva, M. (2017) Governing risk society. Institutional conditions for local adaptive capacity to climate change in Norway, Sweden and Germany. NIBR Report 2017:10, 101 p.

Hanssen-Bauer, I., Førland, E.J., Haddeland, I., Hisdal, H., Lawrence, D., Meyer, S., Nesje, J.E.Ø, Sandven, S., Sandø, A.B., Sorteberg, A. & Ådlandsvik, B. (2017) Climate in Norway 2100 – a knowledge base for climate adaptation.  NCCS report no. 1/2017, 47 p.

Hisdal, H., Vikhamar-Schuler, D., Førland, E. & Nilsen, I.B. (2017) Klimaprofiler for fylker. Et kunnskapsgrunnlag for klimatilpasning. NCCS report no. 3/2017, 144 p.

2016

Artikler i internasjonale tidsskrift med fagfellevurdering/Peer-reviewed international journal papers

Hamududu, B.H. & Killingtveit, Å.
(2016) Hydropower Production in Future Climate Scenarios: The Case for Kwanza River, Angola. Energies, 9 (5), 363, DOI:10.3390/en9050363

Hamududu, B.H. & Killingtveit, Å. (2016) Hydropower Production in Future Climate Scenarios; the Case for the Zambezi River. Energies, 9 (7), 502, DOI:10.3390/en9070502

Hundecha, Y., Sunyer, M.A., Lawrence, D., Madsen, H., Willems, P., Bürger, B., Kriaučiūnienė, J., Loukas, A., Martinkova, M., Osuch, M., von Christierson, B., Vormoor, K. & Yücel, I. (2016) Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme flow indices across Europe. Journal of Hydrology, 541, 1273–1286, DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.08.033

Li, H., Xu, C-Y., Beldring, S., Tallaksen, L.M. & Jain, S.K. (2016) Water resources under climate change in Himalayan basins. Water Resources Management, 30, 843–859, DOI:10.1007/s11269-015-1194-5

Osuch, M., Lawrence, D., Meresa, H., Napiorkowski, J. & Romanowicz, R.J. (2016) Projected changes in flood indices in selected catchments in Poland in the 21st century. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, DOI:10.1007/s00477-016-1296-5 

Osuch, M., Romanowicz, R.J., Lawrence, D. & Wong, W.K. (2016) Trends in projections of standardized precipitation indices in a future climate in Poland. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20, 19471969, DOI:10.5194/hess-20-1947-2016

Romanowicz, R.J., Bogdanowicz, E., Debele, S.E., Doroszkiewicz, J., Hisdal, H., Lawrence, D., Meresa, H.K., Napiorkowski, J.J., Osuch, M., Strupczewski, W.G., Wilson, D. & Wong, W.K. (2016) Climate change impacts on hydrological extremes (CHIHE): A Polish-Norwegian Project. Acta Geophysica, 64 (2), 477–509, DOI:10.1515/acgeo-2016-0009

Vormoor, K., Lawrence, D., Schlichting, L., Wilson, D. & Wong, W.K. (2016) Evidence for changes in the magnitude and frequency of observed rainfall vs. snowmelt driven floods in Norway. Journal of Hydrology, 538, 33–48, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.03.066

Populærvitenskapelige artikler/Popular science articles

Hanssen-Bauer, I., Hisdal, H. & Mayer, S. (2016) Norges klimafremtid: Varmere og enda våtere. Naturen, 1, 12–20, doi:10.18261/ issn.1504–3118–2016–01–03 

NVE rapport

Steen, R. & Andersen, D. (2016) Klimatilpasning i energiforsyningen. NVE rapport 76-2016, 27 pp.

2015

Artikler i internasjonale tidsskrift med fagfellevurdering/Peer-reviewed international journal papers

Engelhardt, M., Schuler, T.V. & Andreassen, L.M. (2015) Sensitivities of glacier mass balance and runoff to climate perturbations in Norway. Annals of Glaciology, 56 (70), 79–88, doi:10.3189/2015AoG70A004

Fleig, A.K., Tallaksen, L.M., James, P., Hisdal, H. & Stahl, K. (2015) Attribution of European precipitation and temperature trends to changes in synoptic circulation. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 30933107, doi:10.5194/hess-19-3093-2015

Frieler, K., Levermann, A., Elliott, J., Heinke, J., Arneth, A., Bierkens, M.F.P., Ciais, P., Clark, D.B., Deryng, D., Döll, P., Falloon, P., Fekete, B., Folberth, C., Friend, A.D., Gellhorn, C., Gosling, S.N.,
Haddeland, I., Khabarov, N., Lomas, M., Masaki, Y., Nishina, K., Neumann, K., Oki, T., Pavlick, R., Ruane, A.C., Schmid, E., Schmitz, C., Stacke, T., Stehfest, E., Tang, Q., Wisser, D., Huber, V., Piontek, F., Warszawski, L., Schewe, J., Lotze-Campen, H. & Schellnhuber H.J. (2015) A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties. Earth System Dynamics6, 447–460, doi:10.5194/esd-6-447-2015

Li, H., Beldring, S. & Xu, C-Y. (2015) Stability of model performance and parameter values on two catchments facing changes in climatic conditions. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 60 (7–8), 1317–1330. doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.978333

Li, H., Beldring, S., Xu, C-Y., Huss, M., Melvold, K. & Jain, S.K. (2015) Integrating a glacier retreat model into a hydrological model – Case studies of three glacierised catchments in Norway and Himalayan region. Journal of Hydrology, 527, 656–667, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.05.017

Mediero, L., Kjeldsen, T.R., Macdonald, N., Kohnova, S., Merz, B., Vorogushyn, S., Wilson, D., Alburquerque, T., Blöschl, G., Bogdanowicz, E., Castellarin, A., Hall, J., Kobold, M., Kriaučiūnienė, J., Lang, M., Madsen, H., Onuşluel Gül, G., Perdigão, R.A.P., Roald, L.A., Salinas, J.L., Toumazis, A.D., Veijalainen, N. & Þórarinsson, Ó. (2015) Identification of coherent flood regions across Europe by using the longest streamflow records. Journal of Hydrology, 528, 341–360, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.016 

Sunyer, M.A., Hundecha, Y., Lawrence, D., Madsen, H., Willems, P., Martinkova, M., Vormoor, K., Bürger, G., Hanel, M., Kriaučiūnienė, J., Loukas, A., Osuch, M. & Yücel, I. (2015) Intercomparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme precipitation in Europe. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 1827–1847, doi:10.5194/hess-19-1827-2015

Vormoor, K., Lawrence, D., Heistermann, M. & Bronstert, A. (2015). Climate change impacts on the seasonality and generation processes of floods – projections and uncertainties for catchments with mixed snowmelt/rainfall flood regimes. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 913–931, doi:10.5194/hess-19-951-2015

NVE rapport

Beisland, C.S., Birkelund, H., Endresen, H., Haddeland, I. & Vik, M.A. (2015) Et væravhengig kraftsystem - og et klima i endring. NVE Rapport 85-2015, 16 pp.

2014

Artikler i internasjonale tidsskrift med fagfellevurdering/Peer-reviewed international journal papers

Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Müller, C., Frieler, K., Konzmann, M., Gerten, D.,  Glotter, M., Flörke, M., Wada, Y., Best, N., Eisner, S., Fekete, B.M., Folberth, C., Foster, I., Gosling, S.N., Haddeland, I., Khabarov, N.,  Ludwig, F., Masaki, Y.,  Olin, S., Rosenzweig, C., Ruane, A.C., Satoh, Y., Schmid, E., Stacke, T., Tang, Q. & Wisser, D. (2014) Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on global agricultural production under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 111, 3239–3244, doi:10.1073/pnas.1222474110

Haddeland, I., Heinke, J.,  Biemans, H., Eisner, S.,  Flörke, M.,   Hanasaki, N., Konzmann, M., Ludwig, F., Masaki, Y., Schewe, J., Stacke, T.,  Tessler, Z., Wada, Y. & Wisser, D. (2014) Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 111, 3251–3256, doi:10.1073/pnas.1222475110

Huber, V., Schellnhuber, H.J., Arnell, N.W., Frieler, K., Friend, A.D., Gerten, D., Haddeland, I., Kabat, P., Lotze-Campen, H., Lucht, W., Parry, M., Piontek, F., Rosenzweig, C., Schewe, J. & Warszawski, L. (2014) Climate Impacts Research: Beyond Patchwork. Earth System Dynamics, 5, 399–408, doi:10.5194/esd-5-399-2014

Madsen, H., Lawrence, D., Lang, M., Martinkova, M. & Kjeldsen, T.R. (2014) Review of trend analysis and climate change projections for extreme precipitation and floods in Europe. Journal of Hydrology, 519, 36343650. doi:10.1016/j.hydrol.2014.11.003

Schewe, J., Heinke, J.,  Gerten, D., Haddeland, I., Arnell N.W., Clark, D.B., Dankers, R.,  Eisner, S.,  Fekete, B.M., Colón-González, F.J., Gosling, S.N., Kim, H., Liu, X., Masaki, Y., Portmann, F.T., Satoh, Y., Stacke, T., Tang, Q.,  Wada, Y., Wisser, D., Albrecht, T., Frieler, K., Piontek, F., Warszawski, L. & Kabat, P. (2014) Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 111, 3245–3250, doi:10.1073/pnas.1222460110.

Artikler i internasjonale konferansepublikasjoner med fagfellevurdering/Peer-reviewed international conference papers

Nilsen, I.B., Fleig, A.K., Tallaksen, L.M. & Hisdal, H. (2014) Recent trends in monthly temperature and precipitation in Europe. In: Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions. Proceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014, Montpellier, France, October 2014, IAHS Publication 363, 132137.

Wilson, D., Hisdal, H. & Lawrence, D. (2014) Trends in floods in small Norwegian catchments – instantaneous vs. daily peaks. In: Hydrology in a Changing World: Environmental and Human Dimensions, Proceedings of FRIEND-Water 2014, Montpellier, France, October 2014, IAHS Publication 363, 4247.

Rapport/Report

Sorteberg, A., Haddeland, I., Haugen, J.E., Sobolowski, S. & Wong, W.K. (2014) Evaluation of distribution mapping based bias correction methods. NCCS report no. 1-2014, 23 pp.