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At NVE statistical models are for example used to estimate extremes (floods and droughts), to provide predictions for ungauged basins and to estimate the uncertainty in various model calculations.
The need to assess the probability of a flood of a specific magnitude when, for example, constructing bridges or dams or undertaking areal planning has made extreme value (EV) analysis one of the most applied statistical methods in operational hydrology. EV-analysis allows estimation of the probability of an event, e.g. a flood of a particular magnitude. The probability of an event and its recurrence interval are inverse ratios. This implies that there is 1 % probability every year that a 100-year flood will occur whereas there is a 10 % probability that a 10-year flood will occur.There is also a need for streamflow information at ungauged sites. Streamflow characteristics at sites without observations can be estimated by establishing statistical relationships between physiographic/climatic characteristics and streamflow at sites with observations (so-called ‘regional regression’). Regional regression is used, for example, to establish statistical models for the estimation of low flow characteristics in any river in Norway.
Low flow map of Norway, regional regression